I Knew Reagan Would Win In 1980, And Why I Am Concerned Now

Gregg Hilton

How I Knew Reagan Would Win In 1980, And Why I Am Concerned Now

I watched the 1980 presidential debate with a dozen friends, and I will not name them because many were moderate low information voters. I was surprised they were still undecided, but they were not alone.

Close to 15 percent were undecided that October. Three weeks before the election, Time magazine, CBS, and The New York Times all said the race was dead even. Carter’s economic problems were well known, and according to Army Chief of Staff Edward Meyer, we also had a “hollow military”.

He said many Army units existed only on paper and were not prepared, manned, or equipped to defend the nation.

The Soviets were pursuing a massive buildup that would include an estimated 13,500 tanks, 6,300 aircraft, 900 ballistic missiles and 1200 intercontinental missiles.

Reagan faced a hostile media and U.S. News says he was frequently described as a “Dangerous cowboy. B-movie actor. Intellectual lightweight. Heartless right-winger.” Reagan made progress in erasing that image during the debate with third party candidate John Anderson  while Carter refused to participate.

Still, Gallup's final pre-debate poll showed Carter up by 3 percent. Of course, I thought Reagan won the debate, and he clearly articulated a vision of where he wanted to take the nation. I didn’t think there was any knockout punch, but the reaction of my undecided friends was surprising. Practically all of them said Reagan had won.

I don’t remember their exact words but the theme was 1) Reagan was more presidential, 2) The media image of him was wrong, and 3) He had a plan. 

After the debate, Gallup gave Reagan a 3 percent lead and it kept growing. By the weekend, AP and Harris/ABC had Reagan ahead by 5 percent. 

Reagan won 51 to 41 and it was a huge landslide. He carried the electoral college 489 to 49, and Carter won only six states. The GOP gained 13 Senate seats, and 33 House seats.

Several polls gave Reagan a lead at the end of the campaign, but no survey detected the GOP landslide before it actually happened. Reagan’s approval rating increased steadily from the GOP convention, and the surprise was that the undecided voters broke heavily for him. 

It is a wonderful memory, but why am I concerned now? In 1980, Reagan won white voters 56 percent to 36 percent, with third party candidate John Anderson taking 8 percent. 

n 2012, Romney won white voters by the same 20-point margin, 59 percent to 39 percent. But a big difference is that in 1980, whites were 88 percent of the electorate, whereas, in 2012, they were just 73 percent.

Romney said his big mistake was not doing more to reach minority voters, and we have to do better with them in 2016.